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My Singapore Stock Portfolio October 2013

10.17.2013 · Posted in Dividend Stocks, Singapore

This is an update to my Singapore stock portfolio for October 2013. For previous months, please see

My Singapore Stock Portfolio July 2013

My Singapore Stock Portfolio May 2013

My Singapore Stock Portfolio End February 2013

 

img singapore stock portfolio oct 2013

As you can see from my portfolio, I have changed the format slightly by including a decimal point for the % of portfolio numbers. That is because as the number of stocks in my portfolio grow, some become less than 1%.  The past few months have been relatively volatile due to the QE tapering expectations to non-tapering and then the US government shutdown as well as the debt ceiling problems. However, that always poses a good opportunity to invest.

REITS

I took the chance to increase my stake in the following REITs, Ascendas REIT, Cache, First, Fraser Centerpoint, CapitaRetail China Trust, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Parkway Life, Starhill and Suntec. I like Suntec in particular for its strong growth potential from the completion of the AEI. In the short term, delayed QE tapering will see some upside for REITs for now and the idea is to stay invested for the dividends as we never know when the QE tapering would end.

Other Dividend Stocks

I also increased my stakes in Boustead, Comfort Delgro, First Resources, Kingsmen, ST Engineering and Silverlake. All these stocks have strong free cash flow and decent dividend yields. First Resources strong growth and young profile remain attractive despite relatively weak outlook of CPO. ST Engineering in particular would continue to benefit from a US recovery and growth in Aerospace industry in Singapore while the rest are more defensive.

SIA Egineering, Dairy Farm and Keppel Corp

I also bought SIA Engineering, Dairy Farm and Keppel Corp. SIA Engineering has very strong recurring income, free cash flows and on top of all that, a huge cash pile. Like ST Engineering, It will also benefit from increased air traffic in Singapore, the new Changi airport terminal and growing aerospace industry.

Dairy Farm is a hyper/supermarket player 4 main markets,  Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia with Hong Kong contributing more than 50% of the revenue. It is the largest supermarket player in Hong Kong with Wellcome and 7-11 stores. Free cash flow is extremely strong and Dairy Farm is building up substantial amount of cash.

Lastly, I am taking position in cyclical large cap Keppel Corp as well due to overall macro environment recovery. Book orders for Keppel Corp are coming in very strongly and it is one of the market leaders in global rig building.

I will also update my global asset allocation in the next post as there is too much focus on local stocks and not enough focus on getting global exposure in asset allocation.

 

For more information, you may be interested in:

My Singapore Stock Portfolio July 2013

My Singapore Stock Portfolio May 2013

My Singapore Stock Portfolio End February 2013

96 Responses to “My Singapore Stock Portfolio October 2013”

  1. Hi Calvin,

    Thanks for sharing your latest portfolio update.

    Been looking at SIAEng and Silverlake for a while. Good company with good ROE and FCF. Can you share what’s the recent price you bought these 2 stocks? Just for my info :)

    Thanks!

    • Hi BC, no problem!

      Yup, both companies look great financially, plus they have good growth potential. SIA Eng around $4.70. Silverlake I have been accumulating for some time, but the last time round bought around 0.70-0.705.

  2. Hi,

    Saw your portfolio during july for vard was 13%. Now vard was about 5%.
    Did you trim your holding for vard or increase ur portfolio 100% so that 13% become 5%.

    Thanks.

    • Hi Sam, in July my Vard holdings represented about 8% of my portfolio not 13%. I did not trim my holdings in Vard, it’s more of an increase of investments in other stocks.

  3. Are the prices attractive to load up more on particularly CRCT, FCT, Parkway and Silverlake?

    • Hi Diana, I feel that Silverlake looks relatively attractive at current prices. For REITs, I doubt it’s the end of the volatility, the talk of QE tapering will come again, and depending on the movements, can consider buying on dips.

  4. Wow, that’s a huge pile of purchase there you’ve made in a month. Never seen you made such a huge pile of investment in a while now, other than the Interlace of course ;)

    • Hi B, yeah it’s quite a bit of investments done in the past few months. Have to keep reinvesting the income and also money made from selling some of my properties.

  5. Hello Calvin, i am looking at buying Dairy Farm. Would you share at what price did you enter to buy..thanks

  6. Hi Calvin,

    Is there a reason that you are not vested in Keppel Reit?

    • Hi Vic, at the moment I don’t think Keppel REIT valuations are very compelling given the cyclical nature of office sector. For office wise, I would prefer CapitaCommercial, if the price is right.

  7. Hi Calvin,

    Dairy Farm close at 11.36 today. Do you think it is a good price to enter now? The 52 weeks high is around 13.88.

    Thanks.

    • Hi Jason, it is not considered very cheap, but it’s not too expensive either given its market exposure. If you are keeping for long term at least a couple of years, it is fine to enter.

  8. Hi Calvin,
    What do you think of the pawnshop business? Do you feel it make a good investment? There is an upcoming IPO called Valuemax, will you be sharing your views on this with us? Do you think the Singapore market is becoming over saturated with pawnshops? Thanks

    • Hi MICH, I have looked at the Valuemax business briefly. It’s an interesting business and I can see the value generated as they can charge customers up to 1.5% per month interest or 18% per year but their borrowing cost is only about 1.5-6%, so that’s a good spread. One concern though is the pawnbroking business has been growing rapidly due to the casinos and I am not sure if the growth is sustainable. Also, volatile gold prices and government regulations could have an impact as well. P/E is about 20x and yield is probably around the 2% range. I don’t think I will be investing.

      • Anonymous says:

        Hi Calvin,
        Thanks for sharing your learned view.
        Ascott reit just announced a 5 for 1 rights issue. The main purpose of the rights issue is to pare down debt. Is this a positive or negative for shareholders? It is issued at quite a big discount, is that good or bad?
        Will you be subscribing for the rights?
        I noticed that they have been relying alot on acquisitions to boost their DPU as their REVPAR have been falling consistently, which lead to thir high gearing which lead to more rights issue. Are they getting themself into a downward spiral?
        Have a nice day.

        • Hi, yes I am not particularly happy with the right issue. As I mentioned before I don’t like to see rights issue being used to pare down debt. Furthermore, it is being issued at a substantial discount, unlike the CapitaRetail China Trust rights. Furthermore, I think hospitality pales in comparison to retail REITs. As a result, I have sold off my Ascott REIT.

  9. Hi Calvin ,

    Croesus reit drop below IPO price , the yield is above 8 % , i am looking to add in to my protfolio but have some worry about foreign exchange risk , as all croesus income
    is in Japan yen , what is your comment ?

    TQ

    • Hi beh, there will definitely be forex risk as with all foreign based stocks. However, that shouldn’t stop you from allocating some proportion to foreign asset to gain diversification. The key is to use it to diversify rather than as the core portfolio.

  10. I think Dairy Farm is very expensive compared to Tesco (for e.g).

    This articles describes it all.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1775122-how-cheap-is-tesco-plc-compared-to-its-asian-peer-dairy-farm?source=yahoo

    • Hi Hanlong, I think the article is a little bit misleading. The author just uses the first page of their report and didn’t look deeper. It uses trading profit as a measure of profitability, but in actual fact trading profit is term used only by Tesco and is not relevant in accounting terms. It is better to use operating profit (EBIT) or net profit or profit before tax to compare to Dairy Farm. First off, Tesco results are not impressive, while revenue did not change much between FY 2012 and FY 2013, EBIT dropped by 47% from 4182 to 2188 and net profit dropped by 56% from 3,164 to 1,386. Not to mention that they incurred a huge loss of more than 1 billion selling their loss making US operations. On FY 2013 basis, the PE is closer to 21x, not particularly attractive considering their poor track record. Dairy Farm is much better run company as a whole.

      See page 16 of

      http://www.tescoplc.com/files/pdf/results/2013/prelim/prelim_2012-13_results_statement.pdf

      Even the latest H1 2014 results are not impressive, still showing negative growth from previous year. Valuation wise Tesco is definitely cheaper than Dairy Farm but there is a reason for it. Not to say Tesco is not a good investment, but just highlighting the differences.

  11. Hi Calvin,

    I like to seek your opinion on Rex International. The price has seen a sharp fall post the acquisition. Good to buy on weakness now?

  12. Hi Calvin,
    CRCT will launch the non-renounceable preferential offering to its existing unitholders. What does it mean “non-renounceable”? What is your opinion on this offering? Thanks for your writing.

    • Hi NS, all it means is that the right cannot be transferred or sold to another investor unlike normal rights. I am definitely subscribing to the rights, I think its a good opportunity and the proceeds will be used to increase the property portfolio.

  13. Hi Calvin, what is the reason behind for you not holding any Sbabana reit, so far this counter offers the highest yield? Thks.

    • Hi Clement, I think I have been asked this question many times, but it is probably hidden somewhere between all the comments. Simple reason is that Sabana REIT does not have a sponsor, is a small REIT and I am not particularly bullish on industrial properties due to the short leasehold nature. It is also increasingly hard for industrial REITs to acquire good properties.

  14. Hello Calvin

    Thank you for sharing the information about your portfolio.
    I have read some of your articles, and they are very informative, especially for someone like me who is new to investing and REITs.

    I see that you are optimistic about Suntec. Until recently I shared your opinion, but I am now uncertain. I read a blog which pointed out some concerns about Suntec.
    (http://feb10capital.wordpress.com/2013/02/24/suntec-real-investment-trust-suntec -reit/)
    To summarize:
    – DPU has been decreasing slightly over the past few quarters.
    – Recent distribution includes capital from divestment, which is a one-off thing.
    – Recent distribution includes rental support from the MBFC asset, which will end in 2015.
    If we exclude divestment income and rental support, the DPU would have been even lower. The writer thinks that the potential increase in rental from the on-going AEI at Suntec mall may not enough to compensate from the loss of rental support.

    Personally I do not mind a temporary drop of dividend if things improve down the road. However, I am worried that if the DPU drop significantly, it may result in a drop of the stock price, which means capital loss for me. I am uncertain if I should continue to hold on to my suntec units.

    May I know what is your take on this?

    Regards
    Kelvin

    • Hi Kelvin, that’s a pretty old article you are looking at there, written in Feb. We are in November already. The phase 1 AEIs are completed and the tenants have begun operating. It was a period when DPU was down due to the AEI renovations and tenant turnover, but things are looking up now. The tenants are pretty high quality, H&M,Uniqlo etc. and they are still in rent free period. However, going forward rental will climb up, phase 1 is almost 100% pre committed with more than 25% increase in average passing rent compared to before AEI. Phase 2 is more than 70% pre committed, so things are looking pretty good.

  15. Hi Calvin,

    What’s your view on Yongnam? Is the recent price (~ S$0.25) cheap? Given their projects pipeline is healthy (especially from the MRT projects)

    Cheers!

    • Hi BC, construction demand is definitely there in Singapore and also regional. However, the problem with Yongnam seem to be cost overruns, probably caused largely by the increase in labour costs. They have issued a profit guidance warning, so the results might be pretty bad. If they can’t keep their costs down, there is little use in doing loss making projects.

  16. Hi Calvin,

    With the recent drop in share prices of Super Group, do you think it is a good time to enter? Given Super’s regional presence and business, I believe qualitatively it is an attractive company, however, I am unable to really calculate Super’s intrinsic value given it being more of a growth company.

    Thanks.

    • Hi TL, Super business should be pretty stable, but this quarter’s results did not do so well. It’s not so much about valuation at this point, as valuation wise P/E is still in excess of 20x. It is whether the revenue and profits can pick up after this quarter. It seems that they are spending a lot on rebranding and advertising, I wonder about the effectiveness of their marketing given the poor results. Analysts seem to be rather skeptical about their short term performance at this point.

  17. Hello Calvin

    Thanks for sharing your opinion on Suntec.
    Seeing that you are vested in LippoMalls, I have another query:

    If you look at page 3 of their Q32013 financial report:
    http://lmir.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20131106_182228_D5IU_657BE7164A3B374848257C1B00041555.1.pdf

    It says that they are making a loss of 230 million, mainly due to “Exchange Differences On Translating Foreign Operations”.
    Even so, they are still paying out dividends. Why is this so?
    Is this something we should be concerned about?

    Thanks!
    Kelvin

    • Hi Kelvin, firstly the dividends are paid out from cash flow, not profits for REITs. Secondly, the comprehensive income exchange differences on translating foreign operations is an accounting term to account for changes in equity. Due to timing differences in the forex, the comprehensive income can differ greatly from reported profit. However, total return is still positive so there is nothing to be concerned about. Volatility in the forex is definitely a risk when you invest in foreign assets so always remember to diversify.

  18. Hey, whatever happened with your US portfolio?

  19. Why is Suntec Reits dropping? Any idea is it worth getting some now?

  20. Hi Calvin,

    What’s your take on Suntec REIT at the 1.5+ levels now? Good entry price?

    Thanks
    Vic

  21. Hi Calvin, what do you think of Suntec purchase of Sydney office tower ??? It seems to be 100% funded by debt…

    • Hi Cloud, 100% debt funded means no dilution to equity and the highest return possible. There is little impact on gearing and it is 100% pre committed, looks like a pretty good deal to me. Most risk comes from Leighton but it’s large cap listed company so should be ok.

  22. Hi Calvin , what is your commnets on Suntec buying Australia office property ? personally i feel uncomfortable with their move , besides facing foreign exchange risk , i think Australia property price is at peak cycle now , no a good time to buy .

    TQ

    • Hi beh, I am not very familiar with Australian properties, but the numbers seem to justify the acquisition. It is DPU accretive, NPI yield of 6.9% seems reasonable. It is 100% pre committed with weighted average lease of 10 years. Unless there is a property crash or major shift in Australian economics, transaction looks ok to me.

  23. Hi Calvin,

    Is Capmall Trust announcing another round of div play for Nov? Historically at least for the past 2 years, there was another div payout in the Nov period.

    Thanks.

  24. Hi Calvin,

    I got into Mapletree GCC at 88.5c. Decent price? Do you know the frequency of the dividend payout?

    Thanks
    Vic

  25. Hi, do you think it’s a good time to buy capitaland? Thanks.

    • Hi Stefanie Capitaland is a good buy for its proxy into the China development market. Among all the developers it is probably the strongest as its exposure is largely based in China as opposed to Singapore.

  26. Hi Calvin,

    What do you think of Far East Hospitality Trust? Thank you

  27. Hi Calvin,
    Once again, I thank you for sharing with us your portfolio and advices. I have some queries and not sure whether this is the correct place to do so.

    Recently, Ascott has announced 1 for 5 rights. I do hold some of Ascott. I have already applied the entitled rights in full as well as excess rights thru ATM last week.

    Do you know in your experience that when will the amount be deducted immediately from my bank account? I am asking this because I have no idea whether my application has gone thru or not, as I do not receive any receipt after the application (perhaps I have not selected the “Ask for receipt” option).

    According to SGX FAQs, it says “There is no limit on the number of excess rights that you can apply as long as the application monies are paid. If you apply via the ATM of a participating bank, the application monies will be deducted immediately from your bank account.” So I would assume when I applied for excess rights, it should have been deducted immed.

    (I am still applying for T-pin for CDP to check on my application status, hence to ask you instead).

    Thank you.

    • Hi En, the money will be deducted first from your account. If you receive the refund back, it means that the excess rights did not go through or it went through partially based on the amount refunded. If it is not refunded, then it means you are successful is applying for the excess rights. Good luck!

  28. Hi Calvin,

    What is your view on Marco Polo Marine? The net gearing of 60% is considerable high? Is MPM considered a growth stock with okay dividend?

    Thanks!

    • Hi BC, Marco Polo Marine is a growth stock, P/E definitely looks rather attractive. Dividend yield is a bit on the low end for me at only about 2%. Gearing of 60% is acceptable as its an asset heavy business. I already have Vard which I think is similar, but it’s a bit of a turnaround play. Vard also tends to have a higher dividend yield.

  29. Hi Calvin,

    LippoMalls is about 40/40.5 level now. Good entry point given the over 7% div yield at this range?

    Thanks

  30. Hi Calvin,

    Noticed that you hold bigger stakes in Capmall Trust and Mapletree Comm. Any compelling reason for these 2 holdings versus the rest?

    I’m looking at Mapleree Log, ur take on that?

    And what’s ur view on the tapering that is sorta bound to happen? People are talking about liquidating REITS, ur thoughts?

    Thanks!

    • Hi Vic, if you notice 3 of my top holdings are actually retail SREITs. In my opinion, my preference for long term growth is in retail as not only are they very stable, they also have good long term growth. Logistics play is pretty stable, but the growth is not as strong. In a rising interest rate environment, I would stay away from such REITs.

      Trying to guess when the tapering will happen is relatively pointless in my opinion. It is just important to prepare by staying diversified and having dividend growth stocks instead of just high dividend yield stocks. Also, trying to sell all the REITs to time the market will probably just lose out on the dividends while waiting for the tapering which may or may not happen soon.

  31. Hi Calvin,

    Like to seek your view on the recent early redemption of F&N bonds. Are the terms favourable to investers? I am holding the 7 year 3.15% bond

    Thanks

  32. Hi Calvin,

    It is a par value bond and trading at close to par, hence YTM should be close to coupon rate 3.15%.

    I got it through IPO and was treating this like a safer portion of my cash/bond-reits/stocks portfolio….

    The stocks-reits seem weakening in last 2 weeks…. Better to wait out or start accumlating?

    Thanks

    • Hi Alvin, at 3.15% yield I would just let go of the bond. I don’t think it’s a fantastic return. I would get much higher yields from dividend yielding stocks plus the bonus of growing income. Bond valuations are still not attractive, but that should all change once the tapering starts.

      I have been starting to accumulate mainly retail SREITs like CapitaMall Trust and Fraser Centerpoint. Starting to look pretty attractive at mid 5 yields.

  33. Hi Calvin,

    ST Engineering has dropped to about $3.79. Do you think it is a good price to buy for dividend yield ?

    • Hi SY, at about 4% plus dividend yield and net cash position, I think it’s not a bad price. However, short term wise there doesn’t seem to be much catalysts, it should be a long term holding.

  34. Raymond Lim says:

    The price of Cache has fallen to 1.06/1.07, is good time to invest Cache Logistics ?

    • Hi Raymond, in face of rising interest rates I wouldn’t go into industrial REITs or warehousing REITs due to possible oversupply and limited rental upside to counter the interest rates.

  35. Hi Calvin,

    Believe the recent headwinds is due to the QE tapering noise again? FCT trading 52weeks low, good time to load up more?

    For Telco (M1 & StarHub), good time to buy? Or should wait for FED announcement next week for better deal? StarHub is leverage heavily on debt for their business operation, wouldn’t this be some issue when cheap money is removed from the market?

    Thanks!

    • Hi BC, yup it is due to possibility of QE tapering again. I think we have seen this a couple of times already over the past few years. I think the whole thing is getting old and I can’t be bothered to try to predict when they will actually start tapering QE. I have been picking up FCT. M1 and Starhub have close to 5% forward yield, which is not bad. The free cash flow for M1 and Starhub is pretty strong.

  36. Calvin

    Do u think it is time to load on ocbc?

  37. hi Calvin
    I am holding like 20 lots of Vard which i bought at $1.22 now it has dropped to below IPO price. I am thinking of selling but the loss is too much..are you still keeping your Vard shares? When would I see a silver lining or light at the end of the tunnel?

    • Hi patricia, yes I am still keeping Vard shares and I actually picked up more. It is a turnaround play in my opinion as their Brazilian yards are controlling their costs better and they have picked up a pretty strong book order. Once both of the Brazilian yards are profitable, the stock should pick up. They are one of the cheapest oil & gas play at the moment with a decent dividend yield.

      • Hi Calvin,

        Vard seems to have stopped distributing dividends. When do you expect it start distributing dividends? Do you think it will still give high dividend as before? This is my major concern when deciding whether to average down my cost

        • Hi TL, Vard didn’t stop distributing dividends. The dividend policy is intact, just need to wait for the fiscal year end and they should keep to their dividend policy. The last time dividends were high because the previous parent company needed cash and that’s why they issued a very high dividend. Going forward, dividends would be more conservative but sustainable.

  38. Hi Calvin,

    Can you explain why industrial has limited rental upside . You mean retail and office reit got more rental upside?

    Why is it specifically to industrial only.
    Thks.

    Sam

    • Hi Sam, based on research reports, there is an oversupply of industrial properties and more supply is coming in. I am neutral on office REITs as well. To me, retail has the most consistent rental upside due to the limited supply and strong demand.

  39. Hi Calvin,

    Mapletree Greater China Trust and Capitaretail China Trust have fallen much more than other REITs, and I am looking at a loss of nearly 20% for both. Why have they fallen by so much? Do you think I should cut losses or do you still believe the fundamentals of both REITs are good and I should just hold?

    Thank you very much

    • Hi Stealth I believe the fundamentals of both REITs are sound. In fact, I have been picking up CRCT for the growth potential. They have fallen because their prices were driven up due to record low interest rates. Now that likelihood of tapering QE may signal higher interest rates, the REITs are getting sold down. You must have bought when the yields were not as attractive to be down 20%. However, long term wise I believe that they will do well.

  40. hello Calvin
    Am looking at buying Boustead at 1.64 is that a good price to enter. What was the price you entered at..
    thanks for sharing..

    • Hi patricia, I bought Boustead much earlier around $1.20 to $1.30+. However, Philips securities is still very bullish on Boustead. At current prices yield is still quite attractive at about 4% for a growth company with very strong free cash flow and cash pile.

  41. hi calvin

    the news going around is that US stock market will crash sometime after 2014 which if it does happen will affect markets worldwide..

    assuming that i believe this will happen, what SIN stocks do you think should I be investing in instead?

    thanks

    • Hi kat, there are always rumours going around in the market. If you listen to every rumour and take it seriously, you will have a lot of trouble investing properly. My advice is to learn how to invest and stick to your convictions if you want to be successful at stock investing. The beginning of QE tapering is actually a good sign for the US stock markets.

  42. Hi Calvin,

    You still holding Malaysia stock? From your last portfolio update (Sep 2012), Amway & Nestle formed quite a large portion of your portfolio. What’s your view on this 2 shares? Still good to enter with recent price (RM12 for Amway, and RM68 for Nestle)?

    Also, will you consider adding Dutch Lady into your Malaysia portfolio? Dlady has been doing quite well in recent years and paying out decent dividend. Is RM47 good price to enter?

    Thanks!

    • Hi BC, I have not been concentrating on my Malaysia portfolio much since I moved back to Singapore. I have been putting more of my funds into the SG market. Dutch lady does look like it has decent yield. It’s probably ok to buy if you are holding for long term for the yield. However, growth wise a research report I read seems to think that raw material prices might impact their margins. I definitely like the consumer story but I would study in further detail.

  43. r u worry about rising interest rate against your property mortgage amid a weakning property market?

    • Hi jiaxu, yes it is a concern, but there isn’t much I can do except make sure that I can afford the higher installments when the interest rates go up eventually. I did sell a couple of properties though to reduce my exposure.

  44. Hi Calvin,

    WE like reits for the dividend income but with tapering of QE ,will our yeild be badly affected? Also , price could drop too?

    As we keep reits for the income, are we tax on the Singaporen dividends for Malaysians? Singaporens do not need to pay tax on dividends income from companies listed on SGX .

    Thanks

    • Hi, no it generally should not affect the dividends or your yield for that matter because you already bought it. The stock price may drop as the price adjusts to for rising interest rates.

      No you will not be taxed on Singapore dividends, as individuals are exempted, only corporate investors have to pay tax on dividends.

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