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My Singapore Stock Portfolio End February 2013

03.04.2013 · Posted in Dividend Stocks, Singapore

This is an update to my Singapore stock portfolio for End February 2013. For previous months, please see

My Singapore Stock Portfolio End December 2012

My Singapore Stock Portfolio Mid November 2012

My Singapore Stock Portfolio Early September 2012

 

As stated in the last post, I have been looking less at REITs, but at other stock investments which have strong free cash flow and dividend yields.

img my singapore stock portfolio end feb 2013

Boustead Singapore

It is a very strong infrastructure company with a diverse business portfolio including Geospatial Technology, Industrial Property Design and Waste Water as well as Energy engineering. It has very strong economic moats from having the exclusive license in geo spatial technology for many countries as well as one of only 3 full turnkey industrial real estate solutions players.
It has a reasonable yield at about 9x and attractive dividend yield of above 5% with very low leverage. Other investment merits are high free cash flow, low payout ratio of about 50%, which indicate further dividend upside. I bought it around $1.20.

Kingsmen Creatives

Kingsmen Creatives is similar to Silverlake Axis in many ways. It is a business services company just like Silverlake, except that it specializes in corporate interior, events and exhibition design while Silverlake specializes in IT services. Due to little asset requirement, capex is minimal, hence free cash flow is very high.

The free cash flow track record can be seen in increasing net cash balance and it has an excellent dividend payout track record. I bought it at around $0.75, which gives about 5% yield and single digit P/E.

 

I also increased my stake slightly in Silverlake Axis and substantially in STX OSV as the price dropped to about $1.245 due to the uncertainty around the offer. As you can see, I raised the STX OSV as a percentage of my portfolio from 3% to 13%.

STX OSV was definitely one of the value buys among a relatively high valued market, now that E&Y has advised shareholders to reject the offer, the general is even more unlikely to go through. SeeĀ Ernst & Young Report Recommends STX OSV Shareholders to Reject $1.22 Offer

 

For further information, you may be interested in:

My Singapore Stock Portfolio End December 2012

My Singapore Stock Portfolio Mid November 2012

My Singapore Stock Portfolio Early September 2012

Ernst & Young Report Recommends STX OSV Shareholders to Reject $1.22 Offer

STX OSV FY 2012 Results

My Malaysia Stock Portfolio September 2012

My US Stock Portfolio Mid Aug 2012

64 Responses to “My Singapore Stock Portfolio End February 2013”

  1. Hi Calvin,

    Wow.. That is quite a substantial increase for STX OSV, from 3% in your last update to 13%. Did you sell any shares to fund this purchase?

    • Hi TL, yes it is a substantial increase. I do that when I really see the value :)

      Nope I didn’t sell any stocks. I had excess funds to invest. Dividends, business and rental income are still building up cash, so I can deploy anytime I see a good opportunity.

  2. Hi Calvin.

    Did you average up for Silverlake axis? The current price is 0.6, is it still an attractive buy?

    Regards.

  3. Hi Calvin,

    I’m interested with Lippo Mall stock. However, its price has gone up to relatively high level. Do you think at its current price, it’s still worth investing, or I should hold back till price correction? Much appreciate your views.

    • Hi yongji, estimated forward yield is about 7% for LippoMalls. While it looks fairly valued now, it’s still ok if you are holding for long term. I am holding on to ride the growth in the Indonesian economy.

  4. hello calvin
    I was unsuccesful at MapleTree GC Ipo :(
    So now i am looking at shares from Riverstone Holdings and Straco. What is your opinion of these two companies.
    I am looking to buy stx/osv . What is a good price entry point.
    thanks n I always enjoy reading your blog.

    • Hi patricia, no worries, many people did not get it MGCT as well. I didn’t manage to get any either. I just picked up a bit at opening price.

      Riverstone is a glove production company in Malaysia. It is actually trading at a cheaper valuation at single digit forward P/E than its comps Hartalega and Top Glove which are both trading at midteens. Dividend yield is also decent at close to 5% while Harta and Top Glove are about 3%. Looking at the industry, looks like a worthy buy in my opinion. I might actually pick up some lots myself.

      Straco is a S-Chip, so I generally don’t follow them as I would rather buy China companies on SSE or HKSE.

      STX OSV is at a very attractive price right now, if you are interested should enter now.

  5. Hi Calvin. With QAF’s b/s and cashflows worsening, and the stock being priced pretty highly now wouldn’t it be a good time to sell it? Thanks.

    • Hi TL, I am banking on them to focus on their bakery business and improve it. FY 2012 the bakery business hasn’t done too badly actually. Also, the huge difference in PBT is actually due to a one time writeback of allowance for doubtful debts in FY 2011. It’s no longer as cheap as when I bought it, but it’s not exactly overvalued either.

  6. Hi Calvin, I am a new investor and just opened a brokerage account and and my first trade was 10 lots of STX OSV @ $1.245. Do you think this will be an auspicious start? lol also I read a report that no dividends are declared. Does that mean I will not receive any dividends for this year? (I bought on 11 March 2013). Thanks

  7. Hi Calvin,

    In the event that stx osv really gets delisted, are the delisted shares still worth the offer price of $1.22 or become worthless in the form of share certificate? Thanks.

    • Hi Marcus, no in the event if they do get 90% or more of the company, they will force you to sell your shares at $1.22, so you will still get $1.22. It doesn’t become worthless.

  8. Hi Calvin,
    Just a random question as I was just wondering if you do take part in securities lending? I was just reading up on securities lending and borrowing and saw that the lenders can earn some extra cash. Though they forgo their voting rights, the dividends are still theirs.
    Do you think lending securities is a good idea, especially for small time investors who hold long term and want some extra earnings?

    • Hi gabriel, yes if your brokerage does offer SBL, it is a good way to earn some extra cash. I know Philips offer it but you have to transfer your stocks from CDP to under Philips. CDP itself also offers SBL, but I heard the chances of your stock getting borrowed is quite slim, especially if your holdings are small.

      • Anonymous says:

        Hi Calvin,
        I noticed your portfolio is heavily biaised towards REITS. What if the interest rate start to rise, would that adversely affect your portfolio’s performance. Is that a concern for you and if so, how do you plan to mitigate the impact?

        • Hi Anonymous, if interest rates were to rise, it will definitely have an impact on the REITs. The impact depends on the loans which the REITs take, the debt maturity profile of the REITs etc. It does not impact all the REITs in the same manner. Those REITs with long debt maturity can adjust their rentals in future accordingly to offset the increase in interest expense.

          In terms of yield expansion, I bought most of my REITs at yields of above 5%, so even if interest rate were to rise to say 3-3.5%, it’s still ok for me. The important thing is not to overpay for them especially since interest rates are low now and the REITs are experiencing yield compression.

          • Hi Calvin,
            Thanks for your explaination.
            What are the downside of having a portfolio comprising entirely of REITs versus one with Dividend paying stocks and REITs? Which portfolio in your opinion is beter if one is concerned with capital preservation and earning a decent yield?
            Would a well diversified portfolio of REITS be “fail safe” even if interest rates were to rise and QE infinity withdrawn?

          • Hi MIC, it is definitely better to be diversified with other dividend paying stocks rather than just REITs alone. Other than interest rates, there are other factors which could affect REITs, such as demand/supply, tourist arrivals for hospitality REITs, manufacturing activity for industrial REITs etc.

            A portfolio is not static, rebalancing should take place from time to time to take advantage of market cycles of different sectors. Having a portfolio entirely consisting of REITs reduces the ability to rebalance.

  9. Hello Calvin,
    Wasn’t succesful at MapleTree GC IPO
    As such, I am looking at shares from Neratel.
    Neratel has a good dividend yield and free cash flows.
    Would like to know why it isn’t in your portfolio.
    Thanks loads for the informative blog. Was a real pleasure reading it.
    Justg accumulated STXOSV at the current market price.

    • Hi Vik,

      Yes the Neratel dividend yield certainly looks attractive. I wasn’t following Neratel during the acquisition period, so I missed out on the run up. Even now, the yield is about 5.7%, which is not bad. P/E is about 12x. I am looking at STX OSV to follow in Neratel’s footsteps to run up after the general offer is over. So I have been loading up on STX OSV as it presents better value now.

  10. Michelle says:

    Calvin, SMRT is now at the year’s lowest price. Do you think it makes a good investment? Thanks. Michelle

    • Hi Michelle, SMRT is still at 20x P/E, with the uncertainties surrounding it, i.e. wage increases, poor public opinion, rising capex, it’s hard to see much value in it.

  11. Stxosv is constantly dropping. You think it will continue the thrend?

    • Hi John, no. The general offer is at $1.22 so it is unlikely to go below. The general offer ends on 13th March, so hopefully it can react like Neratel did.

  12. hey calvin, everyday, I saw sgx website having those dealings disclosure on STX OSV. for example, http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_A7886A85349D5F4848257B2C000BB005/$file/Dealings_Disclosure.pdf?openelement

    what do they mean? does it mean many people are selling their stocks to the $1.22 offer or?

    • Hi Ben,

      No. That’s the OZ fund selling their stakes. They own more than 5% stake so they have to declare their transactions. The prices they sold at are all above $1.22, so it’s not Fincantieri they are selling to. They are selling to a party who believe in the value of STX OSV to buy now when it is uncertain.

  13. hi calvin
    i went in to buy 10 lots of stxosv yesterday but please let us know (readers) when its time to sell. thanks.
    what is going to happen next to this company if takeover is not successful?
    riverstone n boustead singapore has moved up a little since we last spoke so again, i am sitting on the sideline..

    • Hi patricia, I generally don’t post buy/sell calls, I prefer to educate and let readers make their own choices. I also do not have the time to post about every transaction I do, I usually just post an update to my portfolio every now and then. However, I do give live updates to my clients, do email me if you are interested.

      Once the general offer fails, then STX OSV will remain listed with Fincantieri as the main shareholder. Business should carry on as normal as they have a strong team and Fincantieri shouldn’t have much to contribute in terms of expertise as they are only a general ship builder, while OSVs are highly specialized.

      Riverstone hasn’t moved much. Boustead on the other hand, has run up significantly since I bought.

  14. Hi Calvin,
    I saw Credit Suisse USA bought in more than 6% of STX OSV shares. And their counterpart in Singapore is advising Fincanteri on the privatization. Could it be the US counterpart buying for Fincanteri?

    • Hi Samuel, we can’t tell for sure. However, since CS holds more than 5% of the company, it is not considered part of the free float anyway. We are more concerned if the free float reduces to below 10% as a result of the general offer.

  15. Winston Chiam says:

    Hi Calvin,

    You said: “We are more concerned if the free float reduces to below 90% as a result of the general offer.”

    I thought our concern should be below 10%.

    • Hi Winston, yes thanks for pointing out. It should be below 10%. Anyway, they only got 55.63% in total. So STX OSV remains listed.

      • Hi Calvin, not sure are there any recent precedent but is Fincanteri likely to revise their offer higher?

        • Hi Ric, I doubt so. Fincantieri is not looking to take private the company, they just got STX OSV at a good price from STX. Based on analyst consensus, they probably need to pay at least $1.50 for a reasonable valuation which may cost too much for them.

  16. hi calvin
    i understand that you cant possibly do the sell/buy calls, too much hassle. i would like to send my son to attend your course, may i know when is your next course and how much is it? what does your course cover?
    i am eyeing Boustead Singapore, would $1.35 a reasonable price entry point.how much would the dividend be, would you know from last years payout.
    thanks :)

  17. Hello Calvin

    thanks again for sharing your portfolio and witful thoughts.
    I’de be delighted if you could let us know your take on MIIF (Macquarie) trust.
    With a Yield around 9.5%, provided by strong cash flow, a P/B around 0.8 and very good EBITDA as well, technical price action looks on the rise indeed.
    Any special reason you didn’t pick it on your portfolio ?

    Best Regards
    — Habsb

  18. Anonymous says:

    Hi, do u think it is still a right time to hold STX OSV for the long term?

    • Hi Anonymous, personally I am holding on and watching to see how the business goes under the new owner. I can’t say I will hold for the long term, it depends on the performance going forward.

  19. Hi Calvin,
    What’s your take on GoldenAgr for the moment given the shares price and the surrounding environment for CPO and labor cost.
    Thanks.

    • Hi Jay, CPO prices is still not stable for the moment, but long term outlook remains good as it is a highly used commodity in many industries including f&b etc. I am keeping Golden Agri and looking to add on if there is further weakness.

      • Hi Calvin,
        Golden Agri continues to adjust downwards over the past few days. My average entry price is 0.635 but with this current trend, it is advisable that i close the position to cut loss?

  20. Hi Calvin, STXOSV price and volume is still not picking up after the GO ended. What’s you take on this share? You still holding on?

    • Hi Cloud, yes I am still holding on as I believe it is still undervalued. Market is also rather weak currently, may require a better quarter results to lift the stock price. Also waiting for announcement of more book orders.

  21. hi Calvin
    The recent surge in S Reits has been attributed to QE inflated growth and excess liquidity in the market rather than due to higher rentals or DPU growth . As such, the
    view is that the prices of reits will rationalise sometime 2H of this year or early 2014..

    what is your view on this? And which reits if any does not fall within the above scenario?

    Thanks

    • Hi katy, the increase in price of SREITs is due to a combination of factors. Low interest rates and hot money definitely contributed to it. However, the rental income and net property incomes of most REITs have also increased significantly, so the values have also increased as well.

      In my opinion, the REITs are not overly priced in general, but most are fairly priced. Again, we cannot predict when the prices will change, we can only react when it happens. You can buy the REITs when they correct in prices to become more attractive, or you can look for REITs which have further potential upside from higher rentals, AEIs etc. for e.g. Suntec REIT is undergoing major AEI which could drive their values up further.

  22. Hi Calvin,
    In calculating historical dividend yield average, should I use :-
    (a) the historical nominal [origina]) share close price, or
    (b) the historical [dividend-\split-] adjusted share close price?

    My thoughts are that I should use the historical nominal share close price because using the historical adjusted share price would erroneously over-state the historical dividend yield average.
    Also, the nominal share price is used in the current year.
    Appreciate your opinion, please. Thanks very much.

    • Hi jojo,

      The current trailing yield is simply based on the last 12 months dividends / current price.

      For historical yield calculations, you can use the daily closing price over the period or simply use the average price for the year to calculate. With the daily closing price, you will get a historical dividend yield chart while for the average price you will get a rough figure for each year.

      • Hi Calvin,
        Thanks very much for your prompt reply.
        Actually, I am not asking about how to compute historical or current trailing dividend yield as I know the formula for its computation.
        My query is actually about using (a) the historical nominal [origina]) share close price, or (b) the historical [dividend-\split-] adjusted share close price, to compute historical dividend yield. Which price should I use?

        To date, I have been using the historical nominal price. Is this correct, or should I use the historical adjusted price? If the latter is correct, then should the historical adjusted price be used for all price valuation metrices, such as PE, PBV, etc?
        Hope to get your opinion. Thanks very much for your help.

        • Hi jojo, I am not sure what your question is.

          If you are talking about a stock which just ex-div today, you should probably use the previous day’s price at close to calculate the trailing dividend yield as the price would have adjusted for the dividend today. The larger the dividend the larger the impact. It is especially important for stocks which only dividend once a year as the size of the dividend is significant.

          If you are talking about a stock split, then you definitely either need to adjust either the stock price or whatever metric you are measuring (earnings, dividends) for the split. For example, if you want to calculate P/E for a stock which split 2 for 1, you either need to divide the stock price by half to compare to the before stock split eps or you just take trailing net income divide by post split shares outstanding.

  23. greenrookie says:

    Hi Calvin,

    I was taking a closer look at golden agri and there are a few bugbears that I hope you you can enlightened me.
    The calculation of fair valuation gain, they mentioned it is calculated based on 3 year av. of CPO price plus stock and minus estimated cost. No matter how I use CPO production, FFB production or total years of mature FFB/ CPO productions I can’t seem to get a figure that is even the slighestly resemble what is reported by Golden Agri. You have any idea how to calculate that?

    2) Although production and hence revenue for the Indonesia business has been generally improving,it margin is worsening and nope, it not because of the fall inCPO prices, the margin in years when avCPO is improving from 2009 to 2011

    3) It seems that the correlation of CPO price and NP is not that strong after all, CPO is increasing from 2005 to 2009 but both NP margin (excluding valuation gain) and GP margin are erratic…

    4) Also i calculate the ratio of old palm to mature palm, old palm to mature and young palm, and the ratio is steadily declining over the 10 years and it makes me wonder how sustainable is their production increases? I couldn’t find information on their reserve land for planting? Do you have such info???

    Thank you for your reply and time reading my long questions

    • Hi greenrookie,

      1.I don’t really bother with the fair value gains as they are not exactly earned revenue. When looking at plantations, we normally strip out the bio gains to get core earnings.

      2.Not sure where you are getting your numbers, gross profit margin is 22% in 2009, 27% in 2010, 31% in 2011 and 27% in 2012. So margins are improving from 2009 to 2011, GM dropped in 2012 due to lower CPO prices. Core net profit margin is consistent at around 9-11% from 2009 to 2011. 2012 dropped to 7% due to lower CPO prices.

      3. Margins are consistent, you are probably getting thrown off by the bio gains. See
      http://www.goldenagri.com.sg/ir_financial_highlights.php

      4. Total landank is 570k ha. They need to replant more, but as the 2nd largest in the world, they can’t grow at the same rate they did in the past. If you want a high growth company, it’s better to consider First Resources.

  24. When will you update your latest portfolio?

  25. Dear Calvin,
    Noble Group, this one really very disappointing, keep buying in each dip and it goes further south :\ Calvin, what do u think of noble, worth buying/keeping ?

    Must start looking into dividend investing too, could you recommend us just a few counters worth accumulating.

    Many tks…. Calvin for your kind sharing, happy & fruitful trading.

    Wind

    • Hi Wind, I am not too interested in supply chain managers like Noble. They are simply commodity traders with very high turnover but a very low margin. Also, any wrong predictions and a sudden change in direction commodity prices can affect them very badly. I prefer primary production which actually creates value as opposed to just trading. Noble does have some production, but it is relatively small in relation to their SCM business.

  26. Good day Calvin,

    Noble going to be penny liao, some guru rated .80…. .40

    Calvin.. STI ETF worth buying every support? Or what ideal price to collect?

    Many tks again for sharing with us.

    • Hi Wind, I am not a big fan of SCM, so I don’t look at Noble in detail.

      I don’t issue buy calls and target prices, buy when its a value buy in terms of fundamentals. It’s around 13x, so it’s reasonable, but not very cheap if you are looking for a big bargain.

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